EIA: Alaska Crude Oil Output to See Growth in 2026

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), Alaska will produce more crude oil next year for the first time since 2017.

In 2026, the production is expected to rise by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d), the biggest growth since 2002. The output increase will mostly come from the Nuna and Pikka projects, two recent oil deposits in Alaska. In December of last year, ConocoPhillips produced the first oil from the Nuna project.

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In 2025, Alaska's yearly crude oil production is expected to average 422,000 barrels per day. The additional output from the Nuna project will balance out the decline in output from the current wells.

The Nuna and Pikka projects are being developed on the North Slope, which is where the majority of Alaska's drilling activity is concentrated. As of December 2024, according to data released by the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, 22% of the wells for the Nuna and Pikka projects have been drilled. By 2028, 58 more wells will be drilled.

CononoPhillips estimates that the total output of the 29 wells in the Nuna project will peak at about 20,000 barrels per day of oil. At its peak, the Santos and Repsol-owned Pikka project is anticipated to generate 80,000 barrels per day from 45 wells.