Russian Crude Oil Exports to Remain Stable in February

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): According to industry sources, Russia expects oil exports from its western seaports in February to remain more or less stable upon comparison with January exports. However, winter weather and refinery maintenance may affect export volumes, they said.

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The oil loadings from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk ports are projected at around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month of January this year. The exports are expected to remain high in February, driven by dip in refinery runs during the month and also due to weather-related loading delays from January. The commencement of planned maintenance works at some refineries may boost the volume of crude oil available for export.

Meantime, the sanctions by the U.S. on tankers involved in Russian oil shipments may squeeze Russia’s oil export market. This may slow down loadings as well. Currently, there are no significant disruptions in loading. But, sources foresee vessel shortage, mainly due to sanctions and ice restrictions in Baltic.

The Russian commitment to the OPEC+ group to implement voluntary cut in oil exports by around 200,000-500,000 bpd during the first quarter of 2024 may result in reduced oil exports during February.