JP Morgan Forecasts Flat Crude Oil Prices in 2024

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): JP Morgan expects Brent crude oil prices to average at $83 per barrel during 2024, more or less flat when compared with 2023. It sees prices averaging at around $81 per barrel this year. However, the prices are likely to witness fall in 2025, averaging at $75 per barrel.

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According to JP Morgan, the demand is on track to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day during the current year. The production from non-OPEC countries is expected to surpass this with a 2.2m b/d expansion, mainly driven by a 1.5m b/d boost in U.S. output. The supply growth from non-OPEC producers is seen at 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, almost in line with demand growth.

It foresees a sustained global demand of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024. The robust emerging-market conditions coupled with resilient demand in the U.S will support the demand. Also, it expects European market to remain stable, although weak.

The OPEC+ oil production needs to remain constrained, so as to keep the global oil market balanced, JP Morgan noted.

Also, global oil demand growth is projected to dip to 1 million barrels a day in 2025. The OPEC+ supply will witness surge. The global oil markets are likely to shift to surplus during the year. The OPEC+ members are expected to deepen their production cuts by a million barrels per day.

JP Morgan expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production and export cuts through the initial quarter next year.