EIA Cut Crude Oil Price Forecast for 2024

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its December 2023 edition of Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), has revised downwards the price forecasts for crude oil in 2024.

The spot price for Brent crude oil will average at $84/bbl in first-half 2024, higher when compared with the average of $78/bbl in December 2023, partly on account of recently declared OPEC+ production cuts. However, EIA expects lower prices for the whole year. The spot prices are predicted to average at $83/bbl in 2024, down from the forecast of $93/bbl in November STEO.

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The growth in global liquid fuels production in 2024 is expected at around 600,000 b/d. This is significantly lower when matched with the growth of 1.6 million b/d in 2023. The lower growth forecast is primarily due to expected lower production from OPEC+ and slowdown in U.S. production growth.

EIA expects OPEC+ crude oil production to record decline by additional 600,000 b/d next year, mainly due to anticipated extension of production cuts from Saudi Arabia and below target output from OPEC+ oil producing countries.

Also, EIA predicts record high volume of almost 2 million b/d in 2024 in net exports of US crude oil and petroleum products.