OPEC+ to Begin Phased Increase in Crude Oil Output from April 2025

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) members have decided to start increasing crude oil production gradually in April 2025. The previously stated collective reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbl/d) during an 18-month period ending in September 2026 has been reversed by the group, which consists of eight countries.

The eight countries' total output targets will increase by an average of 137 kb/d per month under the new agreement. Compared to previously established levels, this indicates a 10.5% increase in production. The biggest gains will be in Saudi Arabia's and the United Arab Emirates' production, which would rise by 16% and 20%, respectively.

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Following a string of large output cuts, the accord represents a change in strategy by the group of oil-producing nations. Since 2022, OPEC+ has been enacting significant production reductions. According to OPEC+, the most recent decision was made in response to sound market fundamentals and a favorable market outlook.

Many analysts were anticipating the limitations to stay in place, so the change is surprising. JP Morgan said last week that it would be challenging for the alliance to reinstate the output cuts until at least 2026.

Recent geopolitical events are probably the cause of the most recent development. The Trump administration's ban on Iranian oil exports might help OPEC+ nations make up the shortfall.