EIA: 90% of World Oil Output Growth to Come from Non-OPEC Countries

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): In its December 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that world oil production will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. Due mostly to the OPEC+ countries' decision to prolong output limitations until April of next year, non-OPEC countries are expected to account for over 90% of the predicted growth.

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The EIA predicts that the revised production goals set by OPEC+ will maintain a reasonable level of equilibrium in the oil markets in 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, the anticipated OPEC+ cuts will help reduce the world's oil stockpile by about 700,000 barrels per day. However, due primarily to the increase in OPEC+ production and supply growth outside of OPEC+, the remaining portion of 2025 will see an average inventory build of about 100,000 b/d.

The U.S. crude oil production will continue to increase in 2025, said the agency.

The EIA predicts a 1.3 million barrel per day increase in the world's consumption of liquid fuels. Non-OECD nations will be the primary drivers of the anticipated increase in oil consumption, with Asian nations—particularly India—playing a significant role. In 2025, it is anticipated that China's consumption of liquid fuels will increase by over 300,000 barrels per day.

In 2025, the spot price of Brent crude oil is expected to average roughly $74 per barrel, staying very similar to its present levels.