OPEC Foresees Robust Global Refinery Capacity Additions in the Medium Term

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently published its annual long-term outlook, in which it anticipates global refining capacity additions of approximately 6.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the medium term, mainly driven by developing regions.

The majority of the new capacity is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific area, which is expected to add 3.2 mb/d of refining capacity. The Middle East and Africa are expected to add 1.2 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d of capacity, respectively, according to the report.

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OPEC anticipates that between 2024 and 2029, the average annual pace of capacity additions worldwide will stay somewhat higher than 1 mb/d.

The global required refining additions to 2050 are projected at 19.2 mb/d. The rate of additions are likely to witness a slowdown after 2040. Historically, the refining capacity has witnessed a migration from developed to developing countries. The Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East regions will account for nearly 90% of the refining capacity additions.

It is anticipated that refinery runs will increase from 81.8 mb/d in 2023 to about 90 mb/d in 2030. After 2030, the rise will slow down, reaching 93 mb/d in 2040 and around 94 mb/d in 2050, according to OPEC.